Is it possible for the US refining industry to survive if CO2 levels are capped at 1990 levels?

Yes.. refining will survive. First the refiners will rename the industry from refining to brewing. After all, only poor sports don't like breweries! Next the new brewers will freeze things that die so the CO2 contained in them is never released into the atmosphere. For that, the breweries will get carbon credits which are kind of like having ones sin removed by saying "hail Mary s". Once the breweries have been absolved of all of their sins, they will be allowed to make all the gasoline (probably called Schmernoff Energy Booster by that time) they need so they will be able to collect all the frozen dead things they have been saving and blast them off to Mars. On Mars the CO2 and methane contained in all the dead things will be released and Mars will have a new atmophere. At first it will smell like a bean eaters banquet and bad beer, but eventually plants will grow. Those plants will convert all that nasty stuff into oxygen and other good witch gases .. maybe even some rain - acid at first, but eventually it will wash itself clean. For doing all of that the brewers get lots of new carbon credits and a real atta boy from AmabO, the new Pres./Prime Minister and Rock Star of the world. This carbon cycle continues in this manner until Mars becomes over populated. The press discovers that one more molecule of CO2 is all that Mars can handle... hysteria breaks out and the whole thing starts all over again... with all eyes now on Mercury!